What a set of stated nuclear exchanges would do in their first days: deaths and injuries, produced capital destroyed, where fallout reaches, and the published famine case where one matches. Each of the 23 scenarios has its own map: choose one in the menu, with its Map button, or in the list above the map.
This dashboard was developed with assistance from generative AI tools, including Claude, across the design, analysis, coding, and drafting stages. The author supervised all stages, verified the results, and takes full responsibility for the content.
Each scenario states who strikes whom, with how many weapons, at what yield. It is a stress case, not a forecast, and it carries no probability.
Calibrated: the South Asia scenarios, whose response to blast is fitted to a published study's totals. Extrapolated: the same response carried to other theatres, compositions and yields.
Three pairs of figures stand side by side and are not summed. Direct deaths and the famine figure describe different populations over different periods. Blast and fire losses overlap. The fallout zone is a bound on exposure, not a count of the dead, and is not summed with deaths.
Each struck country's most populous places, the rule of the published study the calibration rests on. A marker is a named metro area, sized by the weapons on it, placed at the gazetteer's point for that name. Together the markers account for every weapon.
Deaths after the first days. Scenarios with no computed figures, among them Russia against a state without nuclear weapons.
A region's deaths are its own low and high over the admissible response pairs, and the scenario's are the low and high of the whole, so the regions' sums, with the residue below added, bracket the scenario's interval rather than equal it. Residents of the direct zones in no region's polygon, a coastline or a border, are the residue: counted in the scenario and in no region; each map states them.
Regions are drawn as the boundary source files them. A disputed territory is shown under the state that administers it, and the report and the workbook give each alternative by claimant. Drawing a boundary takes no position on any claim.